Just eight weeks ago that the Villa attacker was standing on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as his coach admonished him for missing a pass in behind. At that point, as Villa endured a six-game winless run, it wasn't clear whether his performances were a symptom or the source for Villa's broader struggles.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
In the latest match, in contrast, the sideline response was much more joyous. After the England international drilled in his second to reinstate Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician discarded his winter coat, threw his arms wide and shouted in triumph. The Birmingham club marched on to ten wins in a row and having failed to win any of their first six games, are somehow only three points off pace-setters Arsenal.
Is This Team Genuine Challengers?
It remains a rather hard question to resolve. Past precedent, the traditional standing of this institution, suggests not. Furthermore, they have not been wholly dominant in many games, while the wins have accumulated.
Per the data, in only two games have Villa had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have just won a ten-match winning streak, they seem curiously susceptible – yet at the moment the margins are falling their way.
The Reliant Strategy
Their recent policy seems to be to exchange chances with an opponent and then rely on their star man to save the day with two crisp finishes. This occurred against Leeds, it happened at West Ham, and once more when facing the Red Devils.
His opener originated from a brilliant finish, curled just inside the upright from the edge of the area. The follow-up goal acted as a slight scruffier version of the opener as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Rogers’ right foot is now akin to Robben’s legendary left: forewarned does not mean forearmed, and stopping him is another matter entirely.”
Is It Sustainable?
Logic says not. In the recent win, the opposition managed more efforts and more shots on target. Villa have triumphed in eight consecutive games by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
A statistical correction could be the most significant challenge the club will encounter as the season progresses. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on thrashing the ball into the top corner indefinitely.
Potential for Growth
Perhaps there is an alternative path where, instead of luck running out, performances begin to trend towards results. Key players may yet find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume adding to his goal tally.
- The attacking talent could transform into the player he was during his peak.
- The defensive duo are set to come back from the treatment room, bolstering an occasionally vulnerable defensive unit.
This could contain the potential for a sustained push, however, it is improbable cannot keep relying on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
Yet, this is a surprise. Nobody thought the team would sit third at Christmas. And most definitely two months ago, few could imagine Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as an essential player for the national team.
This remarkable period is to be savoured exactly since it appears so improbable. When Rogers positioned himself before the North End after the match leading the celebrations, it was clear to be relishing every moment. A feeling he has rightly earned. Such periods are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.
